📐 Bitcoin Power Law Corridor

About the Power Law model ×

Giovanni Santostasi's Bitcoin Power Law observes that BTC's price, plotted against time since genesis (2009-01-03) on a log-log scale, falls along a straight line. Algebraically: log(price) = a + b · log(days), equivalent to price = ea · daysb. The fit is recomputed live from this page's BTC price history via ordinary least squares on log-log coordinates.

The corridor bands are placed at ±k standard deviations of the fit's log-space residuals (k=1.5 here). Roughly: prices inside the corridor are "normal"; above the upper band suggests overheated euphoria, below the lower band suggests deep capitulation. Historical cycle tops and bottoms have repeatedly touched these bands.

Why this works (the disputed bit). Santostasi's argument is that adoption + network effects + halving-driven supply behave like a power law in time. Others view the apparent fit as overfitting to a single asset class with limited price history. Treat the model as a useful framing tool, not a prophecy — and especially not a trading signal.